South Africa is four months away from the 2026 local government elections and the political map is shifting fast.
Election analyst Wayne Sussman joins Mike Sham to break down the biggest battlegrounds: Cape Town, Johannesburg, Tshwane, eThekwini, Nelson Mandela Bay, Mpumalanga, the Northern Cape, KZN, and more.
They unpack the DA’s pressure in Cape Town, the PA’s rise, MK’s strength in KZN and Mpumalanga, the ANC’s decline in key metros, ActionSA’s challenge, the EFF’s struggles, and why Johannesburg could become the biggest fight of the election.
Topics include:
• Can the DA keep Cape Town above 50%?
• Is Joburg now a Zille vs Mashaba fight?
• Will MK dominate KZN again?
• Why the PA is hurting both the ANC and DA
• The EFF’s post-2024 problem
• Which metros could change hands in 2026
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Chapters
0:00 South Africa heads into the 2026 local elections
0:38 Sponsor: Pace Car Rental
1:35 Why the by-election season matters
2:05 Western Cape: DA’s blue wall under pressure
3:00 PA inroads in Mossel Bay, Stellenbosch, Drakenstein & Swartland
5:18 Cape Town warning signs: Mitchells Plain, Athlone & Cape Flats
6:41 Could the DA lose its Cape Town majority?
8:50 Why the PA is the DA’s biggest threat in Cape Town
10:14 The “squeeze” on election day
11:08 Eastern Cape: ANC strength and Nelson Mandela Bay battle
13:02 Why the PA could be kingmaker in Nelson Mandela Bay
15:22 ActionSA and Athol Trollip in the Eastern Cape
16:38 Northern Cape: PA rise and DA decline
19:38 Local community parties and the Northern Cape factor
20:56 Northwest: ANC, EFF, DA and Freedom Front fight
23:18 DA vs Freedom Front among Afrikaans voters
24:57 Limpopo: ANC still dominant
26:40 Mpumalanga: MK’s big tremor beyond KZN
28:35 MK’s strength among Zulu and Siswati voters
29:22 Bushbuckridge: why the ANC still holds Mpumalanga
31:56 KZN: the million-dollar question
32:24 ANC could lose hundreds of councillors in KZN
33:16 EFF collapse and IFP growth
34:37 Why eThekwini and Msunduzi matter
36:38 Could MK win eThekwini outright?
37:50 Free State: no clean audits, but ANC may survive
40:56 Sasolburg, Zamdela and Maluti-a-Phofung volatility
41:56 Gauteng: Tshwane, Ekurhuleni, Midvaal, Emfuleni and Joburg
42:19 Tshwane: DA vs ANC vs ActionSA
44:49 Ekurhuleni: ANC/DA budget deal and MK factor
46:26 Emfuleni: DA wins a black township ward
47:47 Mogale City and West Rand battleground
48:19 Johannesburg: ANC hit hard in township by-elections
50:14 Ramaphosa, Phala Phala and ANC leadership pressure
53:17 DA challenges: FMD, PA rise and Jordan Hill-Lewis
54:15 Helen Zille enters Joburg mayor race
55:32 Joburg prediction: DA largest party, but no one near 50%
56:43 Patriotic Alliance: Gayton McKenzie’s political strength
58:15 EFF crisis after MK’s rise
1:00:34 Final warning: turnout matters
1:00:48 Why voters must show up in 2026
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Wayne Sussman: 2026 Local Elections Will Reshape South Africa DA, ANC, MK, PA & EFF Breakdown