Cilliers Brink joins Mike Sham to discuss the DA’s campaign to win Tshwane, the latest polling, coalition chaos, ANC patronage networks and the fight to restore stable government in the capital city. They unpack why the DA is polling strongly, why voters must vote DA on both ballot papers, how the ANC and smaller parties hold onto power, and why Tshwane’s finances, water tankers and municipal leadership remain major concerns.
They also discuss Johan Mettler, ActionSA’s coalition deal with the ANC, voter turnout, whether coalitions are maturing, and why the 2026 local elections could shift South Africa’s national politics.
Chapters
0:00 Local government election season begins
0:16 Sponsor: Pace Car Rental
0:52 Cilliers Brink joins State of the Nation
1:08 DA polling at 43% in Tshwane
1:37 What the polling means
2:40 Why Brink says not to underestimate the ANC
3:02 ANC patronage and smaller parties
3:38 Gauteng patronage under Panyaza Lesufi
4:02 Removing ANC networks from municipalities
4:36 Why a council majority matters
5:32 Municipal workers want functional leadership
6:46 Why both DA ballots matter
7:18 Is Tshwane really better than Joburg?
7:41 Tshwane is still in trouble
8:46 Johan Mettler and Tshwane’s administration
9:23 Tshwane’s hidden financial crisis
10:06 R777m water tanker spending
10:40 ANC-linked water tanker business
10:46 Johan Mettler and the attempted removal
11:26 Why Mettler matters
12:31 Why Mettler was blocked in Joburg
13:14 Mettler’s reputation in Tshwane
14:04 Salary increases and accusations against Mettler
14:38 Why Brink says Mettler blocked corruption
15:20 Naseepi Moya and the suspension vote
15:48 ActionSA changes position at the last minute
16:18 Court overturns the rigged council vote
16:41 ANC, EFF and ActionSA coalition cracks
17:17 ANC walks out to send Moya a message
17:52 Can anything change before the election?
18:07 ActionSA trying to distance itself from the ANC
18:59 Coalition possibilities after the election
19:21 Why Brink avoids pre-election coalition talk
20:01 DA aiming for a majority
20:31 Why the biggest party must anchor a coalition
21:07 DA’s 2021 result in Tshwane
21:53 Why a DA in the 40s can hold a coalition better
22:03 Voter turnout and the risk of apathy
22:49 Why turnout decides elections
23:40 Do voters care enough to vote?
24:39 Low turnout and small parties
25:02 Why 2021 created so many one-seat parties
25:21 Why voters must make election day matter
25:36 If you don’t vote, don’t complain
26:03 Why Brink is optimistic about 2026
26:50 The Helen Zille effect and mayoral candidates
27:07 Why early candidate announcements changed the race
27:45 ANC forced to reveal its candidates
28:12 2016 changed South African politics
28:34 Are coalitions starting to mature?
29:01 Conditions for successful coalitions
29:46 Why parties need real policies, not vibes
30:19 Coalition majority is essential
31:19 Fewer parties means more stability
31:49 ANC uses many partners to divide and conquer
32:03 Why the ANC must be brought down
32:13 Could local elections change the GNU?
32:38 Elections can change coalition arrangements
33:05 ActionSA’s 2024 result and Tshwane fallout
33:31 Ramaphosa succession and the GNU
34:18 Why fixing cities matters economically
34:59 Job losses in Tshwane vs job growth in Cape Town
35:39 Why municipal leadership affects jobs
36:13 What can change before election day?
36:38 Why polling is not victory
37:27 Urban black voters and late campaign shifts
38:03 DA must not become complacent
38:40 Is the electorate maturing?
38:59 Service delivery vs identity politics
39:40 The ANC no longer controls the terms of debate
40:20 Potholes don’t discriminate
40:30 Closing thoughts with Cilliers Brink
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